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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-04-14T11:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-04-14T11:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/30073/-1
CME Note: Faint partial halo to the E/NE, seen in all coronagraphs. The source is an eruption from AR 3636 (located at S21E40 at this time), observed best in SDO AIA 171/193/304 starting around 2024-04-14T10:09Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-04-17T08:55Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-04-16T21:58Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-04-14 14:48
 - Time at C2: 2024-04-14 11:12
 - Radial speed: 859.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 34 deg
 - Eruption location: N02E20
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 663.70 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2024-04-16 21:58 (i.e. predicted transit time: 58.78 hours)
Lead Time: 34.95 hour(s)
Difference: 10.95 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2024-04-15T21:58Z
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